Tag Archives: political science

NBC Bay Area: Politics Professor Commends Governor for Exercising Leadership on High Speed Rail

Brown’s Perseverance Pays–For Now

Posted by NBC July 8, 2012.

By Larry Gerston

Presidential scholar Richard Neustadt once wrote that the president’s greatest clout lies in his power to persuade. More than signing executive orders or vetoing legislation, Neustadt claimed, the president succeeds when he convinces others to do what they might otherwise choose not to do.

California Governor Jerry Brown showed a bit of Neustadt over the past few months when he convinced a majority of legislators to do what they, too, might have not otherwise done, when they decided on Friday to fund the first portion of the state’s $68 billion high-speed rail project.

Brown had a terrible political headwind to conquer. Public opinion polls showed that the voters were queasy on the idea, given the state’s dreadful economy. Republican leaders in the House of Representatives promised there would be no more federal assistance if they had any say over the matter. And let’s not forget the initial construction site, from Chowchilla to Bakersfield. Who’s going to ride the train there? No one, but that’s where the feds with $3.2 billion in matching funds said the building should commence.

Not a pretty picture. Still, Brown persevered.

In some ways, Brown took a page from the legacy of his father, Edmond G. “Pat” Brown, who also proposed a huge infrastructure project. In 1959, shortly after his election to the state’s highest post, the senior Brown asked the voters to pass a then-huge $1.7 billion bond to create the California Water Project, the backbone of the state’s massive water movement system. At the time, the proposal equaled the size of the state budget. Critics viewed it as an unnecessary boondoggle. Others looked into California’s future and saw nothing but trouble without enough water to meet the state’s needs. Of course they were right.

We won’t know whether the current Brown is right for decades, but we know this: against tremendous pressure he prevailed. And whether or not you believe the high-speed rail project is a good idea, you have give credit to Brown and Senate President Pro-Tem Darrell Steinberg for exercising a characteristic rarely seen these days–leadership.

Larry Gerston teaches political science at San Jose State University and is the political analyst for NBC Bay Area.

NBC: Politics Professor Assesses Prospects for Governor Brown’s Tax Proposal

Brown’s Tax Proposal in Trouble

Posted by NBC San Diego June 10, 2012.

By Larry Gerston

The latest Field Poll offers some bleak prospects for Gov. Jerry Brown and the state of California. Under the terms of Brown’s November ballot proposal, the state sales tax would increase by one-fourth cent for four years, while income taxes would increase for those earning $250,000 or more for seven years.

The proposal is designed to raise about $8 billion annually, erasing half of the state’s $16 billion deficit.

The findings show that 52 percent of the respondents support Brown’s temporary tax increase proposal, with 35 percent opposed. Proponents should be anything but excited. If history is any guide, those numbers portend defeat.

Generally speaking, money-related ballot proposals are most likely to pass when they have support from 60 percent or more going into the election; that’s because some people drift to the “no” side with the approach of the actual vote. Remember last week’s Proposition 29?

More than the aggregate numbers, the numbers inside the Field Poll tell us much about the divisions within California. In terms of political values, strong conservatives oppose the Brown proposal by a margin of three to one, whereas strong liberals endorse the idea by a hefty nine to one margin.

Age is another area of division. The proposal enjoys solid support from people under 40 years of age, but garners less than majority support from those 40 and older.

Then there’s the matter of income. The higher the income, the weaker the support for the Brown proposal, according to the latest Field Poll. High income voters are the most reliable voters, which underscores the likely outcome as matters now stand.

Some might argue that Brown hasn’t done a good job of making his case, although he’s been beating the drums on the state’s budget woes for more than a year. He has warned us of draconian cuts if the tax vote fails, including three fewer weeks of K-12 public education in addition to the week that most have already lost.

Another possibility is that large numbers of people simply don’t care. They’ve got theirs and it’s up to the rest of us to fend for ourselves. If that’s the case, this state is in a lot more trouble than most people understand, and all of us–haves and have nots alike–will be paying a hefty price.

Larry Gerston teaches political science at San Jose State University and is the political analyst at NBC Bay Area.