For several years now we’ve had an annual rain forecasting contest. FYI in the Bay Area (and maybe the rest of CA?), the “rain year” starts on July 1. Why? Probably because we have a Mediterranean Climate which produces zero rain during summer (or just the occasional trace amount). So July 1 is a convenient and dependable date on which to start with zero precipitation.
Our contest is to guess the date by which our cumulative rainfall has passed a certain level. Last year it was 4″, and Prof. Sen Chiao won with a guess of December 8. The year before (2011-12) was so dry that nobody really won (we gave the prize to Prof. Clements, who picked the latest date of Jan 30).
So this year – in the spirit of trying to get this wrapped up by Christmas! – we are going with an amount of 2.75″ of accumulated rain. As I write this blog, the front range region of Colorado is reeling from historical floods induced by over 10″ of rain in many locations in just a couple of days. Compared to this, 2.75″ is peanuts – but that’s California for you!
I picked an early date of Nov 6 – you can take this (the winning pick) to the bank!